What is it?
A price can look like the crowd’s estimated probability, but it is still a tradable contract—not a fact. Exact wording, eligibility, liquidity, and settlement rules matter.
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Plain-language guide
Prediction & event markets
Trade yes-or-no contracts tied to a clearly defined future event.
- Typical volatility
- Higher
- Often used for
- Experienced participants who understand event-contract rules and jurisdiction limits
- Liquidity
- Varies sharply by event, venue, and jurisdiction
The same money can move both ways.
Possible gain$1,000 of contracts bought at 40¢ and settled at $1 would return $2,500: a $1,500 gain before costs.
Possible loss$1,000 of contracts that settle at $0 can be lost entirely.
Educational watchlist
Examples to learn
These are examples—not Council picks or recommendations.
Event contract
Settlement depends on exact written rules
Polymarket-style contract
Access and legality vary by jurisdiction
Regulated event contract
Venue and contract eligibility apply
Before investing
What can go wrong?
- A contract can expire worthless
- Thin liquidity can distort price
- Ambiguous wording can create resolution disputes
- Participation may be restricted
News that matters
Watch these drivers
- Official announcements
- Polling and new evidence
- Court or regulatory decisions
- Contract-resolution sources
Slow down and ask
Three useful questions
- What exact event settles the contract?
- Which source controls resolution?
- Can I legally access this venue from my location?
Keep comparing