Implied probability
A 62¢ price is commonly read as the market assigning roughly a 62% chance. It is trader consensus—not certainty.
Prediction markets explained
What does the crowd think happens next?
Track active Polymarket questions, see the odds as plain percentages, and understand exactly how gains and losses work.
PRICE → PROBABILITY37¢about a 37% implied chance
If the correct outcome settles at $1, every winning share is worth $1. A losing share becomes worth $0.
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Live market pulse
Popular questions right now
Sorted by recent trading volume. Probabilities move as people trade and new facts arrive.
Know the language
Prediction-market terms without the jargon.
The title gets attention. The rules, liquidity, timing, and resolution source determine what you are actually trading.
YES share
Pays $1 when the market resolves YES and $0 when it resolves NO.
NO share
Pays $1 when the market resolves NO and $0 when it resolves YES.
Resolution rules
The exact written conditions that decide the winner. Read these before the headline.
Resolution source
The named official source used to settle the result, such as an agency, league, filing, or published data series.
Liquidity
How much trading capacity is available. Thin liquidity can mean larger price jumps and harder exits.
Volume
The dollar amount traded over a period. High volume shows activity, not accuracy.
Bid / ask spread
The gap between the best buyer and seller prices. That gap is a trading cost.
Limit order
An instruction to trade only at your chosen price or better. It might never fill.
Resolution dispute
A challenge to a proposed outcome. Final settlement can be delayed while evidence is reviewed.
Before choosing a side
Read these five things first.
- The exact question and every resolution condition
- The official source that controls settlement
- The closing date—and whether early resolution is possible
- Liquidity, spread, and whether you could exit before settlement
- Your maximum loss if the contract pays $0
Live probabilities and volumes come from Polymarket’s public market-data feed. Council does not execute Polymarket trades from this page, hold customer funds, or guarantee any outcome.